PRODUCT EXPORT OF UKRAINE: RELATIVE TRADING ADVANTAGES AND ITS ANALYSIS BY THE METHOD OF СONSTANT MARKET SHARES

Abstract

The article conducted a study of the relative foreign trade advantages of Ukraine in the markets of developed, developing and transitive economies according to the sections of single-digit SITC for the period 2013-2017. The indices of relative trade advantages of Ukraine (T.Vollart index) for the above-mentioned groups of economies and sections of the SITC were calculated and analyzed.

Ukraine had comparative foreign trade advantages in trading of primary products on all investigated markets of groups of countries, and in trading by different manufactured goods, by machines and transport equipment on developed economies of Europe markets and on transitive economies market.

The export of goods of Ukraine with relative trade advantageswas investigated, calculated the loss in the export of goods for individual groups of economies and sections of SITC.

Ukraine for period of 2013-2017 bore considerable losses in the commodity export with comparative trade advantages (CTA). Most losses in the commodity export CTA Ukraine tested in an export to the transitive economies (14400 million USD), developing economies of America (774 million USD), economies of Africa (716 millionUSD), developed economies of Asia and Oceania (274 million USD).

After the categories of SITC most negative changes in commodity export with CTA observed in the export of manufactured products (10800 million USD), including export of commodities after the divisions of МСТК 7 -5400 million USD, МСТК 6 - 4900 million USD, МСТК 8 - 838 million USD. Combined losses in the export of primary products for period of 2013-2017 were 2800 million USD.

The decomposition of changes in merchandise exports of Ukraine in the period 2013-2017 has been implemented by the constant market shares analysis. Four effects were calculated, which determine the magnitude of changes in the commodity exports of Ukraine (world trade effect, commodity composition effect , market distribution effect, competitiveness effect).

The decomposition of Ukrainian commodity export changes by the constant market share methods allowed to draw conclusions: Ukraine as small open economy is sensible to the rates of grow/ falling of world commodity export; a world trade effect in a period in 2014-2016 made the 43,9% changes of Ukraine`s exports, in 2015-2016 - 65, 5%, 2016-2017 - 53, 5%); in 2016-2017 the positive of commodity composition effect of Ukraine`s export was attained exceptionally for an account of primary products export, and the positive market distribution effect - due to the concentration of export on the transitive economies markets.