PREDICTIVE MARKERS OF ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. MACROECONOMIC STABILITY

Abstract

The subject of this study is a set of macroeconomic processes and leading indicators that signal rising risks of an economic downturn in the United States of America, as well as the potential transmission effects of such a recession on the global economy and Ukraine in particular. The article provides a

comprehensive analysis of the current state of the U.S. economy under conditions of moderating inflation combined with persistently high price levels, increasing household debt burdens, deteriorating housing affordability, and a gradual weakening of the labor market.

Special attention is paid to the analysis of key leading macroeconomic indicators of recession, in particular the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and the application of the Sahm Rule as an empirical tool for the early identification of downturn phases. The study examines the role of debt imbalances, high interest rates, and the end of the era of “cheap money” as structural factors contributing to heightened macroeconomic vulnerability.

From a theoretical perspective, the paper interprets current developments through the lens of a transformation in stabilization policy frameworks—from the classical Keynesian model to the concept of fiscal dominance, in which rising public debt begins to constrain the autonomy of monetary policy. A comparative analysis with the dot-com crisis of the early 2000s and the global financial crisis of 2008– 2009 is conducted, allowing for the identification of the distinctive features of the current stage of the economic cycle.

A separate section is devoted to the analysis of the potential implications of a U.S. recession for Ukraine, including the risks of reduced financial and military assistance, a deterioration in global commodity market conditions, higher costs of external borrowing, and heightened vulnerability to exchange rate shocks. The practical significance of the study lies in substantiating individual, investment, and institutional strategies for adaptation in an environment of increased macroeconomic uncertainty.